中國如謎，難以揣度。中國經濟發展究竟是在放緩，還是在加速，投資者、經濟學家，甚至北京的決策人都意見不一。

It is a measure of the conundrum that is China that investors, economists and even policy-makers in Beijing are divided about whether the economy is slowing down or speeding up.

    2003年中國的國民生產總值增長率可望達到8.5%，在此形勢下，政府卻保守地把明年的目標定為7%。包括摩根士丹利在內的熊市論者預測實際增長率會略高于這一數字。以高盛公司為首的牛市論者則預測中國經濟將加速增長，國民生產總值的增長率將達到9.5%。如果去看紅紅火火的建筑業，或是新近出現的電荒，我們似乎可以認為這些“官方”的國民生產總值數字將中國實際發展速度低估了三到四個百分點。

After expected gross domestic product growth of 8.5 per cent in 2003, the government has set a conservative target of just 7 per cent for next year. Bearish forecasters such as Morgan Stanley forecast a touch more. The bulls, led by Goldman Sachs, expect an acceleration to 9.5 per cent. And looking at construction activity or electricity demand suggests that these "official" measures of GDP are understating China's actual expansion by three to four percentage points.

    在某個層面上看，這場爭論似乎只有內行人才鬧得明白。不管最后哪個數字正確，中國肯定還是世界上發展最快的經濟體。但事實上，這爭論卻又有重大意義，而且這意義還不限于中國。

On one level, this seems a rather esoteric debate. Whichever number proves correct, China will surely remain the world's fastest-growing major economy. In truth, it matters hugely - and not just to China.

    目前，中國的進口正以年均40%的速度飛速增長。這個號稱世界工廠的國家在石油、金屬、礦物和海運等方面已經掌握了控價權。在亞洲，中國對原材料和零部件的迫切需求能夠幫助該地區(不僅是日本和韓國) 實現經濟的振興。

With imports growing at 40 per cent a year, the world's workshop has become the price-setter for oil, metals, minerals and shipping rates. In Asia, its thirst for raw materials and components has helped restart growth, not least in Japan and South Korea.

    在此同時，中國的出口讓美國消費者能夠持續消費；中國巨大的外匯儲備幫美國減少了現有的財政帳戶赤字。中國的增長上升或下降一兩個百分點，都會對全球商品、貨幣、股票的價格產生巨大影響，使之出現相應的升降。

Meanwhile, Chinese exports are keeping US consumers spending and its foreign exchange reserves are plugging the US current account deficit. A deviation in Chinese growth of a couple of per cent could have a big impact on global commodity, currency and stock prices - either up or down.

    那么，究竟是升是降？2003年大部分時期，北京主要的擔心是經濟發展過熱，一些城市的房地產市場以及汽車、鋼鐵和鋁制品行業都出現了泡沫。為此，中央銀行獲準限制信貸，讓增長緩慢下來。

So which is it? For much of 2003, Beijing's prime concern has been that growth was too frenetic, as shown by incipient bubbles in certain urban property markets, as well as the motor vehicle, steel and aluminium industries. Accordingly, the central bank was given permission in September to rein in credit growth insgroupsto slow things down.

    但是，這一強硬立場即便曾經存在過，看上去現在也已蕩然無存。中國央行副行長吳曉靈在最近接受《金融時報》采訪時，對經濟過熱的說法予以了否認。這說明銀行對非金融領域的貸款還將快速增長。在2003年的前九個月，此類貸款就增加了50%以上。

But this hawkish consensus, if it ever really existed, appears to have broken down. In a recent interview with the FT, Wu Xiaoling, central bank vice-governor denied the economy was overheating. This suggests that bank lending to the non-financial sector, which rose by more than 50 per cent in the first nine months of 2003, will continue to grow rapidly.

    但是，政策指導下的現代化過程可能將受到產能的局限。隨著冬季的降臨，電力短缺導致大量工廠停工，這會延緩外商投資，進而讓增長略有放緩。有些城市甚至連紅綠燈也關了。

This attempt at policy-directed moderation may, however, be giving way to one caused by capacity constraints. As winter approaches, power shortages are causing widespread factory shutdowns that already appear to be delaying foreign investment and could dampen growth at the margin. Some cities have even switched off their traffic lights.

    從長遠來講，這一問題也不一定是壞事。盡管短期內它會對全球需求產生影響，現在軟放緩總比以后硬著陸好。投資人應該仔細留意中國經濟的紅綠燈。

In the end, this might be no bad thing: despite the short-term adverse impact on global demand, a soft slowdown now is preferable to a hard landing later. Investors should watch those traffic lights.

    如果經濟放緩了，或許印度最終可以取而代之？印度財政部長賈斯旺特•辛格(Jaswant Singh) 上周就對《金融時報》表示，印度正“站在爆炸性增長的邊緣。”

If China is slowing, perhaps India is at last ready to take its place? Indian finance minister Jaswant Singh told the FT last week India "stands on the edge of explosive economic growth".

    不過不會。不管印度的電話服務中心如何興盛，他們的軟件人才英語口音如何純正，還是不會取代中國。辛格先生希望占國民生產總值25%的農業出現第二次“綠色革命” ，還寄希望于印度發達的生產中心。

And no, it is not down to all those call centres manned by software specialists - however impeccable their English accents are. Mr Singh is pinning his hopes on a second "green revolution" in agriculture, still 25 per cent of GDP, and the prowess of India's manufacturing centre.

    他的希望也有些道理。如果有個好的雨季，印度今年的經濟增長可能會從4.4%上升到7%以上。印度的資金效率也可能高于中國。粗略算來，過去十年來中國的資金投資可能占國民生產總值的40%，由此產生8%的增長率。換言之，一美元投資產生20美分的增長。印度的資金投資占國民生產總值25%，產生6%的增長率，也就是說，印度一美元投資能產生24美分的增長。

There is something to this. A good monsoon should boost economic growth this year to above 7 per cent (from 4.4 per cent). And India's capital efficiency may actually be greater than China's. Very roughly, capital investment in China has run at about 40 per cent of GDP over the past decade, generating 8 per cent growth - or 20 cents of growth per dollar of investment. India, with growth of 6 per cent on investment of 25 per cent, has managed 24 cents on the dollar.

    高盛公司在十月份發布了一份名為《巴西、俄羅斯、印度、中國四國暢想》(Dreaming with BRICs) 的發展中國家經濟預測報告。報告預測，從長期來看，如果印度未來三十年內保持5%的增長率，最終會超過中國。

Goldman Sachs, in its October report on big emerging economies (Dreaming with BRICs) also estimated that over the very long term, Indian growth of 5 per cent per annum over the next 30 years, would outpace China.

    當然，能否實現這一目標取決于宏觀經濟狀況。過時的勞動法、總額接近11%的財政赤字、龐大的官僚機構，這都是有待克服的障礙。辛格先生本人也承認，“我們的公務員不太忙公務。”

That, of course, depends on sound macroeconomics. Antiquated labour laws, a consolidated fiscal deficit of almost 11 per cent and India's massive bureaucracy are all hurdles that need to be overcome. As Mr Singh himself admitted: "My civil service is not very civil."

    2003年亞洲證券市場形勢大好。按本國貨幣計算，增長約為35%，如果兌換成美元則更高。美國的經濟復蘇有所幫助，但是，證券市場的繁榮主要還是中國推動的結果，中國大陸在香港上市的股票數翻了一番。

Asian equities have had a splendid 2003, with local currency gains of about 35 per cent - and more in dollar terms. The US revival has helped but much of it, once again, is due to the pull from China: mainland stocks listed in Hong Kong have doubled.

    所以，中國經濟發展是否減速是投資者需要關注的一件事。另外要關注的是政治風險。2004年有8個國家要進行大選。

So a decline in Chinese growth is one thing for investors to watch. Another is political risk, with eight countries going to the polls in 2004.

    但是樂觀的是，亞洲的收益將增長25%，而期貨價格指數(日本除外) 卻只有13。清算方面也繼續保持健康。自從2002年1月以來，該地區吸收了800億美元的外資注入。如果巨大的家庭儲蓄投入到股市，股市自然會大振，更是會讓中國經濟產生無可限量的增長。

On the plus side, however, Asian earnings should grow by 25 per cent and the forward price earnings ratio (ex-Japan) is only 13. Liquidity also remains healthy. Foreign funds have put bnsintosthe region since January 2002. And if domestic households, with their vast savings, ever discover shares, that could help underpin stocks - whatever happens to China's growth.

    作者鄧伯樂(Dan Bogler) 是《金融時報》亞洲新聞編輯。作者信箱：daniel.bogler@ft.com

Dan Bogler is the FT's Asia news editor daniel.bogler@ft.com

譯者/柏林