|
Nickel To Ease Next 2 Years, Fall Sharper From 2008-Abare
SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--The Australian government's commodity forecaster expects global nickel prices to ease this year and next.
Prices are tipped to fall more sharply from 2008 when major projects start to come on line, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural & Resource Economics said in a report Tuesday.
Nickel, a key stainless steel ingredient, is currently trading around US$15,000 a ton on the London Metal Exchange, after averaging US$14,750 last year.
Abare expects this year's average to fall to US$13,700 based on global production rising to 1.35 million tons from last year's 1.29 million, offsetting an anticipated rebound in stainless steel production.
Ongoing moderate supply growth to 1.41 million tons and slower non-China demand growth is expected to result in a 2007 price average of US$12,500, the government forecaster said.
Beyond 2007 major nickel laterite projects are scheduled to start coming on stream, pushing global production up to 1.72 million tons by 2011 and world prices in real terms to $7,300, or 46% lower than this year, it said.
The weaker global nickel prices are expected to shrink Australian export returns 3% to A$3.4 billion in the fiscal year ending June 30, 2006 after falling an estimated 5% last fiscal year, Abare said.
| 
