國聯安基金：2005年六月國際市場動態評述

　　美國 US

　　美國主要股票指針在5月份表現強勁。鑒于經濟氣氛改善，納斯達克指數上升8%，為自2003年10月份以來最大的單月升幅。道瓊斯工業平均指數報升3.2%，通用汽車躍升18%，為按百分比計算升幅最大的股份。億萬富翁Kirk Kerkorian 以8.68億美元增持通用汽車股份的消息，抵銷通用汽車及福特汽車的信貸評級遭降至低于投資級別的影響。在道瓊斯工業平均

指數的大型成份股中，Alcoa的跌幅最大，下挫逾6%。反映大市表現的標準普爾500指數則上升3.6%。企業在2005年首季的盈利報告普遍較預期為佳，物料股的按年盈利增長最為顯著。原油價格高企，有助刺激能源公司的盈利增長，而資本開支穩健，令工業及科技股的盈利大幅上升。

　　盡管上月的經濟消息利好，但美國的經濟增長放緩，而消費開支及企業盈利可能由目前的高位回落，我們認為息率將進一步調升。因此，我們對美國股票的短期前景保持審慎。若借貸過度帶動通脹表現強勁，美股可望反復上揚，同時美元匯價亦可能顯著下跌。

　　All key US equity indices rallied strongly in May. The Nasdaq index put in its best monthly performance since October 2003, rising 8% amid improving sentiment on the economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 3.2%,erehwGeneral Motors was the biggest percentage gainer, rising 18%. News that GM and Ford's debt had been cut to below investment grade status was overshadowed by a US $868 million bid for GM by billionaire Kirk Kerkorian. Of the bigger stocks in the Dow, Alcoa declined most, falling more than 6%. The broader S&P 500 Index put on 3.6%. First quarter 2005 earnings reports broadly exceeded expectations, with Materials stocks reporting the highest year-on-year profit gains. Energy company earnings were boosted by high crude oil prices, while solid trends in capital spending resulted in strong profit gains for Industrials and technology stocks.

　　Despite last month's good news, we believe interest rates will rise further as the US economy slows, and that consumer spending and corporate profits may fall from their current strong levels. We are therefore cautious about the shorter term prospects for US equities. An inflationary blowout, for example from excess credit, would see the US stock market rise in a volatile fashion, partnered by a sharp fall in the US dollar.

　　歐洲 Europe

　　盡管經濟數據普遍表現疲弱，但歐洲股市在5月份自基數較低的水平上揚，表現較美股優秀。英國富時指數上升3.8%，DAX指數躍升7.1%，而法國CAC指數則上升5.6%。股市在4月份下跌后，市場主要集中于沽售價格吸引的股份以獲利。雖然納斯達克指數在近期表現強勁，但個別歐洲科技股如STMicroelectronics及Infineon持續令人失望，自年初分別下挫24%及19%。

　　整體而言，我們看好歐洲股市的前景，因為股市的估值仍然偏低，以及區內的企業透過重組提升盈利能力。個別公司可望擴展業務至東歐國家及提高派息率。然而，雖然歐洲企業的自由現金流量高，卻繼續縮減投資。這意味著投資增長偏低，無法抵銷歐元區消費市道表現疲弱的影響。

　　European markets performed even better than those in the US over May, rallying from a lower base despite generally poor economic data. The UK FTSE Index gained 3.8%, the DAX jumped 7.1% and the French CAC Index rose 5.6%. A key theme was profit taking on attractively priced stocks after the declines of April. Despite the recent strong gains in the Nasdaq, selected European technology stocks such as STMicroelectronics and Infineon continue to disappoint,gnivahfallen 24% and 19%, respectively, since the start of this year.

　　Our view on European equities is generally positive, principally as valuations are still relatively attractive and regional companies are restructuring to boost profitability. Selected companies will be able to expandotniEastern Europe and/or lift dividend payout ratios. However, European companies have been cutting investment despite strong free cash flow. The low-level investment growth will struggle to offset the weak levels of consumption in much of Euroland.

　　亞洲 Asia

　　在亞太區股市中，香港股市在5月份報跌0.1%，在過去三個月共下跌2.1%，主要由于市場憂慮息率調升可能削弱需求，以及缺乏有關人民幣升值的消息，令市場失望。韓國為區內表現出色的市場，南韓綜合指數報升6.5%，重返3月份的水平。美元兌其它貨幣上升，加上電子產品股顯著上揚，帶動韓國股市錄得增長。在5月底，臺灣股市占摩根士丹利指數的比重將增加，消息刺激臺灣股市上升3.3%。

　　市場表現波動，加上缺乏大型公司招股上市，令亞洲企業減少發行股份。盡管環球經濟增長減慢及美元匯價表現強勁，對區內的物料及能源股造成影響，但有跡象顯示美國的經濟增長轉強，因而支持亞洲出口股的表現，特別是科技股。

　　展望未來，美國的息率政策將會主導亞洲股市。不少投資者認為聯儲局以“緩慢平穩”的步伐加息將為區內市場帶來利淡的影響。 我們對美國息率仍持樂觀的態度，主要由于美國的核心通脹(不包括能源和食品價格)維持溫和。人民幣可能升值是主導亞洲股市的另一個主題。我們認為中國政府將會調升人民幣幣值，或至少與一籃子貨幣掛鉤，而非單與美元掛鉤。然而，我們預期中國不會在短期內改變目前的貨幣制度，并預計若人民幣升值或掛鉤的貨幣有所改變，區內其它貨幣亦面對升值或更自由浮動的壓力。

　　Asia-Pacific share markets were highlighted by a decline in the Hong Kong equity market, which fell 0.1% in May, down 2.1% over three months. Key influences were concerns about higher interest rates dampening demand and disappointment regarding the lack of news about a Renminbi (Yuan) revaluation. Korea was a standout performer in the region, with the Kospi index rising 6.5% and returning to March levels. US dollar strength against most other currencies and an apparent improvement in the electronics sector were key drivers. Taiwan's share market rose 3.3% on news that its weighting in the MSCI indices was to be lifted at the end of May.

　　Market volatility and an absence of large listings have dampened share issuance in Asian share markets. Although regional materials and energy stocks have been hit by a slowing world economy and stronger US dollar, signs of stronger US growth have underpinned Asian exporters, particularly technology stocks.

　　Looking forward, a key theme for Asian markets is US interest rate policies. Many investors view the Federal Reserve's "measured" monetary policy as negative for regional markets. We remain optimistic on US interest rates, as we believe US core inflation (i.e. excluding energy and food costs) remains benign. The other key theme is Chinese revaluation. We think the Chinese authorities will revalue the Renminbi or at least peg it against a basket of currencies, not just against the US dollar. However, China's currency regime is not likely to be changed in the near term. A revaluation or re-peg of the Renminbi would put pressure on other regional currencies to also be revalued or to move more freely.

　　日本 Japan

　　日股(日經225指數)在5月份報升2.4%，主要由于有跡象顯示美國的經濟持續增長，以及企業增發股息，但并無觸發通脹上升。企業消息方面，Cosmo Oil及Nissan Chemical Industries預測盈利錄得增長，而日產汽車、豐田及佳能等出口商均錄得最大的升幅，盡管鋼材價格下跌，令中國入口顯得便宜，導致日本鋼材制造商的股價下挫。三菱東京金融集團的跌幅最大，主要由于該公司購入UFJ銀行的壞賬后遭調低盈利預測。

　　誠如主要經濟數據所顯示，日本正逐步由通縮轉至溫和通脹，故我們看好可望因房地產和原料價格上漲而受惠的公司。此外，我們看好在科技相關領域具主導地位的企業。長線來說，日本企業應可因中國經濟不斷增長及發展而顯著受惠。

　　The Japanese equity market (Nikkei 225) closed up 2.4% for May. Key drivers were indications of sustained US economic growth and higher dividends without higher inflation. In company news, Cosmo Oil and Nissan Chemical Industries forecast higher profits, while Nissan Motor, Toyota and Canon made the largest gains of the exporters. This was despite Japanese steel makers crumbling under the weight of cheaper Chinese imports, as steel prices fell. Mitsubishi Tokyo Financialpuorgwas a key decliner after forecast earnings downgrades as it absorbs UFJ's bad loans.

　　As key economic data suggest, as the Japanese economy moves from deflation to mild inflation we will increasingly favour companies that can benefit from higher real estate prices and higher raw material prices. We also like companies dominant in particular technology-related areas. Longer term, we believe Japanese corporates should benefit greatly from China's strong ongoing growth and development.

　　債券 Bonds

　　環球債市在5月份大致表現強勁，孳息在月內下跌，但價格則上升。美國聯儲局把聯邦基金利率調升0.25%至3.0%，盡管債市已反映有關行動。兩年期債券孳息收報3.57%，而十年期國庫券的孳息則攀升至月內的高位，主要由于4月份的就業數據較預期為佳，其后于5月份下跌至3.98%(自2月份以來首度下跌至4%以下)。國庫券表現波動，主要由于經濟數字好淡爭持，如零售銷售數據高于預期、工業生產數字表現疲弱，以及美國的核心消費物價指數較預期為低。在5月底，三十年期債券孳息收報4.31%。繼評級機構將通用汽車及福特汽車的信貸評級降至低于投資級別后(標準普爾將通用汽車調低至BB／負面，并把福特汽車調低至BB+／負面)，美國信貸市場越趨回避風險。然而，有關消息公布后，投資級別企業債券的息差表現靠穩，因為有關行動已自3月以來廣為債市所預期。鑒于市場憂慮上述行動可能對投資者造成影響，特別是對沖基金，故為美國國庫券帶來支持。

　　歐洲債市在5月份亦上揚。鑒于美國債券下跌及經濟數據轉弱，導致歐洲債券孳息普遍下調。英國十年期金邊債券在月內收報4.31%，而德國十年期債券則報3.27%。德國方面， 5月份ZEW經濟信心指針遠低于過往的平均水平，而Ifo商業信心指數亦連續第四個月下跌。意大利及葡萄牙政府的言論暗示將會推行嚴厲的財政政策、維持當地需求在溫和的水平，加上在月底法國公投否決《歐盟憲法》，進一步影響歐洲的經濟，但支持歐洲債市的表現。

　　日本方面，國內生產總值及勞動力數據表現強勁，令日本十年期政府債券上升1個基點，收報1.25%。三年期債券孳息收報0.18%。然而，鑒于日本政府債券已有一段期間處于偏低的水平，故有關升幅顯得溫和。

　　匯市方面，由于零售銷售數字高于預期及職位數據表現優秀，支持美元兌環球大部份主要貨幣表現強勁。貨幣交易商認為美國經濟的局部疲軟情況已結束，因而預期聯儲局將繼續調高官方利率。美元匯價表現強勁，令以商品為基礎的貨幣如澳元及南非蘭特受壓。法國公投否決《歐盟憲法》后，市場越趨憂慮歐元區一體化進程的前景，因而拖累歐元兌美元(資訊 論壇)匯價下滑至八個月的低位，在5月份收報1.2349。

　　展望未來，以美元結算的債券仍易受通脹上升及聯邦利率進一步上調所影響。我們繼續看好歐洲長期政府債券。在政府債券維持窄幅徘徊的情況下，我們仍持有應可因而受惠的與通脹聯系債券及可贖回債券。

　　Global bond markets broadly strengthened in May, with yields ending lower and prices higher over the month. The US Federal Reserve Board hiked its federal funds rate 0.25% to 3.0%, although this move had been priced in by bond markets. Two-year bond yields closed at 3.57%, while 10-year Treasuries hit an intra-month high following stronger than anticipated April employment data, thereafter declining to close May at 3.98% (the first time they had dipped below 4% since February). The volatility in Treasuries partly reflected a mixed run of economic numbers, with stronger than expected retail sales data, weak industrial production figures and a lower than expected US core CPI outcome. 30-year bonds ended May at 4.31%. US credit markets remained risk-averse after it was announced that General Motors' and Ford's debt would be downgraded below investment grade status (S&P downgraded GM to BB/Negative and Ford to BB+/Negative). However, investment-grade corporate spreads performed soundly following the downgrade announcement, as speculation about the downgrade had been prevalent in the bond market since March. Concern about the fallout from the downgrade on market participants, notably hedge funds, provided support to US treasuries.

　　European bond markets also rallied in May, with yields generally lower across the curve on declining US bonds and weaker economic data. UK 10-year gilts closed the month at 4.31%, while German 10-year bonds ended at 3.27%. In Germany, the ZEW economic sentiment indicator for May was well below its historical average, while the Ifo business climate index declined for the fourth month in a row. Comments by the Italian and Portuguese governments implying they will be forced to run restrictive fiscal policies and keep domestic demand moderate, as well as rejection by French voters of the EU constitution late in the month, was further bad news for the European economy but further supported European bond markets.

　　In Japan, strong GDP and labour force data saw 10-year Japanese Government Bonds close 1 basis point higher at 1.25%. Three-year yields finished at 0.18%. However, the rally was muted given JGBs have been trading at very low levels for some time.

　　In currency markets, the US dollar strengthened against most major global currencies following stronger than expected retail sales figures and a robust payrolls result. Currency traders believed the US economy was past its soft patch and therefore that the Fed will continue to raise official rates. US dollar strength put pressure on commodity-based currencies such as the A$ and the Rand. The euro skidded to an eight-month low against the dollar, closing May at 1.2349 after French voters rejected the proposed European Union constitution and raised concerns about the future of the euro-zone integration process.

　　Looking ahead, US dollar-denominated bonds are likely to remain sensitive to higher inflation and/or further Fed rate rises. We continue to favour long-dated European government bonds and hold inflation-linked bonds and callable bonds, which should continue to benefit from range-bound yields on government bonds.

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