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中信證券研究部 江賽春
上周A股市場再度大幅滑落，股指在全周一路縮量走低，再度接近1000點。部分股權分置試點股出現跌停，基金重倉股也再度出現了較大面積的大幅下挫。從基金的操作來看，上周基金倉位繼續著小幅下滑的態勢。股權分置改革和對基本面下滑繼續壓抑著機構投資者的信心。
倉位測算結果顯示，上周五88只開放式基金加權平均倉位為59.56%，，與前周的60.34%相比下降0.79%。封閉式基金加權平均倉位為65.35%，比前周的66.06%下降0.71%。從具體基金的操作來看，上周大多數基金的絕對倉位都有所下滑，但考慮到上周市場總體跌幅明顯，扣除價格變動因素后主動減倉因素較不明顯。同樣扣除價格變動因素后，華富混合、富國天瑞、寶盈增長等基金倉位凈變動顯示出一定的倉位增幅，但增幅也十分有限。在另一方面，光大保德信、易方達成長等倉位仍然較高的基金呈現出較為明顯的減倉跡象。
從上周市場表現來看，市場熱點方面表現十分凌亂，沒有明顯的領漲板塊能夠提振人氣，而短線反彈的成交量仍沒有出現放大的跡象。蘇寧電器(資訊 行情 論壇)等試點股在公布方案后跌停進一步打擊了股權分置效應。而基金重倉股中以中集集團(資訊 行情 論壇)為首的藍籌板塊在前期大幅下跌之后仍然走勢疲弱，而受到油價高企而基本面惡化的航空板塊則大幅重挫，顯示基金的減倉態度堅決。只有極少數幾只超級航母藍籌股還在努力護盤，中國石化(資訊 行情 論壇)、長江電力(資訊 行情 論壇)、中國聯通(資訊 行情 論壇)等走勢明顯有資金維護，這種現象表明基金對后市的看法存在相當大的分歧。但從基金總體的持續減倉來看，基金持倉調整仍在延續，總體來看對后市看法并不樂觀的基金占據了多數。
從上周基金重倉股的表現來看，隨著股權分置效應的逐漸淡化，基本面狀況開始更多地影響到基金的操作思路。隨著宏觀經濟減速的影響逐步蔓延到不少基金重倉行業，基金主動進行倉位結構調整勢在必行。一旦對經濟減速和企業盈利下滑的擔心開始擴大，那么基金重倉股的調整可能還遠未結束。這對于在困境中調整的市場來說無疑將帶來新的不確定因素。
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基金名稱
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本周持倉
比例估計
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上周持倉
比例估計
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本周持倉
比例變動
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本周持倉
凈變動
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增持狀態
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華富混合 |
39.87% |
38.75% |
1.13% |
1.97% |
倉位穩定 |
富國天瑞 |
43.22% |
42.20% |
1.02% |
1.88% |
寶盈增長 |
26.53% |
25.32% |
1.21% |
1.88% |
銀河理財 |
61.00% |
60.02% |
0.99% |
1.84% |
融通成長 |
61.00% |
60.02% |
0.98% |
1.84% |
博時主題 |
59.90% |
58.99% |
0.91% |
1.77% |
鵬華行業 |
61.01% |
60.11% |
0.90% |
1.76% |
景順鼎益 |
41.04% |
40.40% |
0.64% |
1.50% |
東方龍 |
52.21% |
52.08% |
0.13% |
1.02% |
國泰精選 |
62.21% |
62.10% |
0.11% |
0.95% |
金鷹精選 |
62.22% |
62.19% |
0.03% |
0.87% |
荷銀混合 |
28.88% |
28.75% |
0.12% |
0.85% |
博時精選 |
64.44% |
64.45% |
0.00% |
0.82% |
海富通精選 |
60.01% |
60.09% |
-0.08% |
0.77% |
嘉實穩健 |
64.45% |
64.50% |
-0.05% |
0.77% |
長城久恒 |
60.01% |
60.11% |
-0.10% |
0.76% |
銀華優勢 |
62.23% |
62.32% |
-0.09% |
0.75% |
合豐穩定 |
62.23% |
62.32% |
-0.09% |
0.75% |
德盛精選 |
36.68% |
36.76% |
-0.09% |
0.74% |
申萬精選 |
62.23% |
62.34% |
-0.10% |
0.74% |
招商股票 |
62.23% |
62.34% |
-0.11% |
0.73% |
易方達策略 |
70.00% |
70.03% |
-0.03% |
0.72% |
諾安平衡 |
60.02% |
60.18% |
-0.17% |
0.69% |
國泰穩健 |
53.36% |
53.58% |
-0.22% |
0.67% |
富國價值 |
66.57% |
66.78% |
-0.21% |
0.58% |
合豐成長 |
59.60% |
60.11% |
-0.51% |
0.35% |
華夏成長 |
60.06% |
60.60% |
-0.54% |
0.31% |
長盛動態 |
58.96% |
59.61% |
-0.65% |
0.21% |
銀華 88 |
56.76% |
57.63% |
-0.87% |
0.00% |
天治增長 |
38.98% |
39.83% |
-0.85% |
0.00% |
中銀中國 |
43.43% |
44.32% |
-0.89% |
-0.01% |
寶康消費 |
60.10% |
61.02% |
-0.92% |
-0.06% |
華夏回報 |
60.10% |
61.03% |
-0.93% |
-0.08% |
大成價值 |
61.21% |
62.13% |
-0.92% |
-0.08% |
中國 50 |
64.55% |
65.45% |
-0.91% |
-0.10% |
大成精選 |
61.22% |
62.17% |
-0.95% |
-0.11% |
東吳嘉禾 |
56.78% |
57.78% |
-1.00% |
-0.13% |
嘉實增長 |
66.77% |
67.69% |
-0.92% |
-0.13% |
融通 100 |
66.77% |
67.69% |
-0.92% |
-0.14% |
華夏大盤 |
61.22% |
62.21% |
-0.99% |
-0.15% |
天同 180 |
70.10% |
71.02% |
-0.92% |
-0.18% |
融通新藍籌 |
65.67% |
66.67% |
-1.01% |
-0.21% |
富國動態 |
54.57% |
55.66% |
-1.09% |
-0.21% |
海富收益 |
45.68% |
46.78% |
-1.10% |
-0.21% |
寶康配置 |
54.57% |
55.67% |
-1.10% |
-0.22% |
南方積配 |
66.78% |
67.79% |
-1.01% |
-0.23% |
德盛穩健 |
51.24% |
52.36% |
-1.13% |
-0.24% |
融通行業 |
61.23% |
62.31% |
-1.08% |
-0.24% |
嘉實服務 |
60.12% |
61.24% |
-1.12% |
-0.27% |
招商先鋒 |
64.56% |
65.65% |
-1.08% |
-0.27% |
景順股票 |
64.57% |
65.65% |
-1.09% |
-0.28% |
大成穩健 |
62.35% |
63.46% |
-1.11% |
-0.28% |
易方達平穩 |
65.68% |
66.76% |
-1.08% |
-0.29% |
廣發聚富 |
65.68% |
66.76% |
-1.08% |
-0.29% |
招商平衡 |
44.58% |
45.76% |
-1.18% |
-0.30% |
華寶策略 |
64.57% |
65.67% |
-1.11% |
-0.30% |
寶利配置 |
55.69% |
56.86% |
-1.18% |
-0.30% |
中國優勢 |
65.68% |
66.78% |
-1.10% |
-0.31% |
荷銀精選 |
65.68% |
66.79% |
-1.11% |
-0.31% |
景順內需 |
65.68% |
66.79% |
-1.11% |
-0.31% |
長信銀利 |
65.67% |
66.79% |
-1.12% |
-0.32% |
景順平衡 |
42.36% |
43.58% |
-1.22% |
-0.35% |
南方穩健 |
62.35% |
63.54% |
-1.19% |
-0.36% |
合豐周期 |
63.47% |
64.67% |
-1.21% |
-0.39% |
華安 180 |
71.23% |
72.34% |
-1.11% |
-0.39% |
銀河穩健 |
54.59% |
55.87% |
-1.28% |
-0.40% |
泰信策略 |
66.80% |
67.99% |
-1.19% |
-0.41% |
長盛成長 |
61.25% |
62.55% |
-1.29% |
-0.45% |
長城久泰 |
70.13% |
71.34% |
-1.21% |
-0.47% |
盛利混合 |
20.12% |
21.21% |
-1.09% |
-0.50% |
博時裕富 |
76.80% |
77.98% |
-1.18% |
-0.57% |
易方達 50 |
76.80% |
78.01% |
-1.21% |
-0.59% |
天治品質 |
68.70% |
70.11% |
-1.41% |
-0.66% |
國聯成長 |
68.70% |
70.15% |
-1.44% |
-0.69% |
博時價值 |
68.70% |
70.22% |
-1.51% |
-0.76% |
國泰金鷹 |
56.86% |
58.60% |
-1.74% |
-0.88% |
嘉實成長 |
67.97% |
69.71% |
-1.74% |
-0.98% |
巨田基礎 |
63.55% |
65.45% |
-1.91% |
-1.10% |
寶盈鴻利 |
63.55% |
65.46% |
-1.91% |
-1.10% |
廣發穩健 |
62.45% |
64.54% |
-2.09% |
-1.27% |
中融行業 |
60.23% |
62.35% |
-2.11% |
-1.27% |
普天收益 |
55.79% |
57.94% |
-2.15% |
-1.28% |
金鷹優選 |
63.57% |
65.66% |
-2.09% |
-1.28% |
廣發小盤 |
66.90% |
68.95% |
-2.06% |
-1.29% |
華安創新 |
62.47% |
64.66% |
-2.19% |
-1.37% |
易基成長 |
70.23% |
72.35% |
-2.11% |
-1.39% |
光大保德 |
71.46% |
74.63% |
-3.17% |
-2.49% |
加權平均 |
59.56% |
60.34% |
-0.79% |
0.07% |
倉位穩定 |
| 資料來源：中信證券研究咨詢部 江賽春 截至：2005-07-08 制表：新浪財經
辛淼 |
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