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中信證券(資訊 行情 論壇)研究部 江賽春
上周A股市場的反彈沒能延續，基金重倉股再度出現了全面調整態勢。除幾個大盤指標股之外，前周強烈反彈的基金重倉股普遍陷入調整，尤以高價股更為明顯。而從基金的操作來看，上周基金倉位總體處于調整之中，觀望態度濃厚。
倉位測算結果顯示，上周五88只開放式基金加權平均倉位為61.06%，與前周的61.20%相比小幅下降了0.14%。封閉式基金加權平均倉位從前周的67.12%再度微降至66.98%。從具體基金的操作來看，多數基金倉位變動幅度不大，倉位略增和倉位略減的基金大概各占一半，但倉位變動的絕對幅度都在2%以內。盛利混合、天治財富增長、銀華88倉位增幅較為明顯；在另一方面，易方達平穩增長、德盛穩健和合豐穩定減持較為明顯。略有增倉的還是輕倉基金，而高倉位老基金仍然保持著小幅減倉的趨勢。總體來看目前基金操作并未有大起大落，觀望態度十分濃厚。
從這兩周基金倉位的變化情況來看，更加確定的是基金并非此次反彈行情的主導。前一周的單日超常反彈是對政策層堅決做多的反映，但這種反彈持續的時間和力度都不足以顯示主流資金已經轉向積極做多。由此來看反彈由游資發動的可能性似乎更大。目前政策面仍然傾向于持續推動市場做多，但在推出實質性改變市場預期的政策之前，這種反彈仍然難以確立。
從上周基金重倉股的表現來看，前周引領反彈的基金重倉股出現全面調整，這種調整反而應該反映了主流資金所持的基本判斷。基金高度重倉的股票有超過一半下跌，且跌幅明顯超過相關股票的漲幅程度。以中集集團(資訊 行情 論壇)、中遠航運(資訊 行情 論壇)等為代表的航運類股票、煙臺萬華(資訊 行情 論壇)為代表的化工類股票、云南白藥(資訊 行情 論壇)等醫藥類股票、西山煤電(資訊 行情 論壇)、兗州煤業(資訊 行情 論壇)等煤炭類股票都出現了連續下跌，“6.8”反彈中的漲幅在短短數日內已經重新消失。但在另一方面，寶鋼股份(資訊 行情 論壇)、招商銀行(資訊 行情 論壇)等大盤指標股走勢卻趨穩。在此我們可以看到基本面的變化仍然是影響股價走勢的重要因素，而這種調整應該反映了基金為代表的主流資金的基本判斷。總體而言上周基金觀望態度明顯，如果未來市場發展中沒有基金重倉股走好，管理層努力營造的反彈行情將會很快夭折。
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基金名稱
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本周持倉
比例估計
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上周持倉
比例估計
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本周持倉
比例變動
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本周持倉
凈變動
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增持狀態
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盛利混合 |
19.74% |
17.38% |
2.36% |
2.41% |
倉位穩定 |
天治增長 |
35.31% |
33.12% |
2.19% |
2.24% |
銀華 88 |
55.32% |
53.21% |
2.11% |
2.16% |
普天收益 |
56.43% |
54.34% |
2.09% |
2.14% |
寶盈增長 |
20.18% |
18.16% |
2.02% |
2.07% |
華安創新 |
67.57% |
65.66% |
1.91% |
1.96% |
東吳嘉禾 |
57.61% |
56.14% |
1.47% |
1.52% |
荷銀混合 |
26.52% |
25.18% |
1.34% |
1.39% |
長城久恒 |
62.07% |
60.74% |
1.33% |
1.38% |
東方龍 |
52.08% |
50.78% |
1.30% |
1.35% |
招商先鋒 |
66.52% |
65.23% |
1.29% |
1.34% |
景順鼎益 |
37.64% |
36.39% |
1.25% |
1.30% |
景順股票 |
66.53% |
65.34% |
1.20% |
1.25% |
國泰穩健 |
57.65% |
56.53% |
1.12% |
1.17% |
鵬華行業 |
62.11% |
61.07% |
1.03% |
1.09% |
中國優勢 |
68.78% |
67.79% |
0.99% |
1.04% |
博時主題 |
59.89% |
58.94% |
0.96% |
1.01% |
中融行業 |
65.45% |
64.53% |
0.92% |
0.97% |
寶利配置 |
56.57% |
55.65% |
0.91% |
0.96% |
富國動態 |
56.57% |
55.66% |
0.90% |
0.95% |
融通行業 |
62.12% |
61.23% |
0.90% |
0.95% |
德盛精選 |
37.36% |
36.47% |
0.89% |
0.94% |
廣發聚富 |
66.57% |
65.71% |
0.87% |
0.92% |
華安 180 |
73.24% |
72.41% |
0.83% |
0.88% |
中國 50 |
65.47% |
64.72% |
0.75% |
0.81% |
銀河穩健 |
57.70% |
57.00% |
0.70% |
0.75% |
華夏成長 |
60.60% |
59.90% |
0.70% |
0.75% |
富國天瑞 |
41.04% |
40.39% |
0.65% |
0.70% |
銀河理財 |
62.15% |
61.52% |
0.63% |
0.68% |
華富混合 |
35.49% |
34.87% |
0.61% |
0.66% |
申萬精選 |
64.38% |
63.83% |
0.56% |
0.61% |
寶康消費 |
62.17% |
61.71% |
0.46% |
0.51% |
華寶策略 |
67.74% |
67.36% |
0.38% |
0.43% |
華夏大盤 |
61.08% |
60.77% |
0.31% |
0.36% |
中銀中國 |
42.19% |
41.88% |
0.31% |
0.36% |
嘉實成長 |
71.08% |
70.78% |
0.30% |
0.35% |
巨田基礎 |
65.52% |
65.23% |
0.29% |
0.34% |
金鷹精選 |
62.19% |
61.92% |
0.27% |
0.32% |
長盛動態 |
61.09% |
60.87% |
0.21% |
0.27% |
海富通精選 |
61.09% |
60.93% |
0.16% |
0.21% |
廣發穩健 |
64.44% |
64.40% |
0.04% |
0.09% |
招商平衡 |
45.56% |
45.64% |
-0.08% |
-0.03% |
博時精選 |
65.57% |
65.70% |
-0.13% |
-0.07% |
寶盈鴻利 |
65.57% |
65.72% |
-0.15% |
-0.10% |
銀華優勢 |
62.24% |
62.40% |
-0.16% |
-0.11% |
大成穩健 |
65.57% |
65.73% |
-0.16% |
-0.11% |
易方達平穩 |
66.47% |
66.71% |
-0.25% |
-0.20% |
國泰精選 |
60.03% |
60.27% |
-0.25% |
-0.20% |
光大保德 |
77.83% |
78.34% |
-0.51% |
-0.46% |
嘉實服務 |
63.40% |
63.96% |
-0.56% |
-0.51% |
招商股票 |
63.54% |
64.12% |
-0.58% |
-0.53% |
廣發小盤 |
68.95% |
69.54% |
-0.59% |
-0.54% |
合豐成長 |
60.07% |
60.68% |
-0.62% |
-0.56% |
融通新藍籌 |
66.74% |
67.36% |
-0.62% |
-0.57% |
易方達策略 |
72.31% |
73.12% |
-0.81% |
-0.76% |
海富收益 |
46.76% |
47.58% |
-0.82% |
-0.77% |
嘉實增長 |
66.76% |
67.65% |
-0.88% |
-0.83% |
易方達 50 |
80.10% |
81.05% |
-0.94% |
-0.89% |
天治品質 |
70.11% |
71.08% |
-0.97% |
-0.92% |
景順平衡 |
46.78% |
47.77% |
-0.99% |
-0.94% |
寶康配置 |
55.67% |
56.68% |
-1.02% |
-0.96% |
長盛成長 |
65.67% |
66.71% |
-1.04% |
-0.99% |
荷銀精選 |
66.79% |
67.86% |
-1.07% |
-1.02% |
南方積配 |
66.79% |
67.87% |
-1.08% |
-1.03% |
景順內需 |
66.79% |
67.87% |
-1.09% |
-1.03% |
融通 100 |
67.90% |
69.00% |
-1.10% |
-1.05% |
南方穩健 |
63.46% |
64.58% |
-1.12% |
-1.07% |
嘉實穩健 |
62.35% |
63.48% |
-1.13% |
-1.08% |
天同 180 |
70.13% |
71.29% |
-1.16% |
-1.11% |
金鷹優選 |
64.58% |
65.76% |
-1.18% |
-1.13% |
融通成長 |
61.25% |
62.46% |
-1.21% |
-1.16% |
博時裕富 |
80.14% |
81.35% |
-1.22% |
-1.16% |
國泰金鷹 |
61.25% |
62.47% |
-1.23% |
-1.18% |
富國價值 |
66.82% |
68.23% |
-1.41% |
-1.36% |
大成價值 |
61.28% |
62.76% |
-1.48% |
-1.43% |
合豐周期 |
65.72% |
67.22% |
-1.50% |
-1.45% |
博時價值 |
70.17% |
71.68% |
-1.51% |
-1.46% |
大成精選 |
60.17% |
61.71% |
-1.53% |
-1.48% |
諾安平衡 |
60.18% |
61.84% |
-1.66% |
-1.61% |
華夏回報 |
61.30% |
62.96% |
-1.66% |
-1.61% |
長城久泰 |
72.42% |
74.23% |
-1.81% |
-1.76% |
長信銀利 |
66.87% |
68.73% |
-1.86% |
-1.81% |
國聯成長 |
72.46% |
74.60% |
-2.14% |
-2.08% |
泰信策略 |
70.24% |
72.43% |
-2.19% |
-2.14% |
合豐穩定 |
62.47% |
64.73% |
-2.25% |
-2.20% |
德盛穩健 |
51.36% |
53.63% |
-2.26% |
-2.21% |
易基成長 |
72.48% |
74.77% |
-2.30% |
-2.24% |
加權平均 |
61.06% |
61.20% |
-0.14% |
-0.12% |
倉位穩定 |
| 資料來源：中信證券研究咨詢部 江賽春 截至：2005-06-17 制表：新浪財經 |
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