|
中信證券研究部 江賽春
上周大盤繼續大幅下挫，股指再探六年來的歷史底部。中國聯通(資訊 行情 論壇)等大盤藍籌股的表現依舊疲弱，而以中集集團(資訊 行情 論壇)為代表的高價績優板塊出現大幅補跌則帶來了一定的恐慌氣氛。從上周基金的倉位變化來看，基金總體倉位水平略有下降，但并沒有跡象顯示基金在大規模地進行減持。雖然總體倉位水平變化并不顯著，但上周
基金倉位調整有加劇的跡象，我們認為這種調整并非主要集中在高價績優板塊，而可能以大盤股為主。
基金倉位測算顯示，上周五81只偏股型開放式基金的加權平均倉位為66.95%，比前周的67.54%略降了0.59%；54只封閉式基金的加權平均倉位為，比前周的69.81%略降0.04%。從具體基金的倉位變動來看，上周多數基金的倉位表現為小幅度下降。泰信策略、寶利配置、天治品質等新基金倉位仍有一定程度增加，與此同時不少老基金倉位小幅度下降。雖然倉位水平變化并不顯著，但倉位測算結果顯示上周基金倉位調整有加劇的跡象，基金的凈值變化趨勢與其重倉股走勢出現了較為明顯的背離，表明不少基金可能在對重倉股進行較大規模的調整。那么這種調整可能涉及哪些板塊？
從上周的市場情況來看，以中集集團為首的高價績優板塊出現大幅補跌行情，海油工程(資訊 行情 論壇)、貴州茅臺(資訊 行情 論壇)、鹽湖鉀肥(資訊 行情 論壇)等強勢股均出現單日放量大跌，對市場人氣帶來較大打擊。而在前期倉位調整過程中持倉進一步向這些板塊集中的基金是否加入減持行列也引起諸多關注。從基金倉位變動情況來看，我們認為基金并沒有集體減倉的行為，但單日的巨額成交量和基金加大倉位調整力度的跡象也表明個別基金在高位減持的可能性很大。我們認為這種減持出于基本面變化的因素較小，獲利減持的可能性較大。在股價已達歷史高位的情況下，一旦有機構減倉則必然以單日股價的大幅下跌來實現；短線資金獲利減持也對股價構成壓力。而由倉位測算結果顯示的近兩周基金倉位調整跡象加劇，我們猜測基金集中減倉的品種應集中在中國聯通等業績下滑的大盤股。而近期原材料價格持續上漲可能引發對行業基本面變化的擔心，部分行業的贏利能力可能削弱，受宏觀基本面影響產生不確定性的一些板塊也可能成為調整重點。業績穩定的板塊和個股仍將是基金持倉較為穩定的部分。由此來看，目前市場的調整態勢仍可能持續。
05年3月25日中信證券開放式基金倉位測算結果：
|
基金名稱
|
本周持倉
比例估計
|
上周持倉
比例估計
|
本周持倉
比例變動
|
本周持倉
凈變動
|
增持狀態
|
泰信策略 |
70.12% |
66.23% |
3.90% |
4.33% |
倉位穩定 |
寶利配置 |
56.28% |
52.63% |
3.64% |
4.12% |
天治品質 |
44.32% |
41.15% |
3.17% |
3.64% |
長盛動態 |
57.65% |
54.87% |
2.78% |
3.26% |
華寶策略 |
74.93% |
72.12% |
2.81% |
3.20% |
華安創新 |
67.20% |
64.75% |
2.45% |
2.89% |
華夏大盤 |
70.03% |
67.60% |
2.43% |
2.86% |
富國價值 |
74.22% |
72.12% |
2.10% |
2.49% |
景順平衡 |
56.50% |
54.74% |
1.76% |
2.24% |
諾安平衡 |
63.22% |
61.50% |
1.72% |
2.18% |
嘉實成長 |
68.76% |
67.24% |
1.52% |
1.95% |
融通行業 |
72.89% |
71.56% |
1.33% |
1.72% |
南方積配 |
72.35% |
71.13% |
1.22% |
1.61% |
長城久恒 |
71.34% |
70.14% |
1.21% |
1.61% |
嘉實穩健 |
66.87% |
65.76% |
1.11% |
1.55% |
博時主題 |
48.55% |
47.51% |
1.04% |
1.52% |
招商先鋒 |
74.33% |
73.23% |
1.10% |
1.48% |
海富通精選 |
65.79% |
64.93% |
0.86% |
1.30% |
銀華優勢 |
72.11% |
71.34% |
0.77% |
1.17% |
易基成長 |
72.00% |
71.23% |
0.77% |
1.17% |
博時精選 |
72.64% |
71.98% |
0.66% |
1.05% |
寶康消費 |
75.35% |
74.69% |
0.66% |
1.03% |
天治增長 |
33.94% |
33.34% |
0.59% |
1.02% |
中融行業 |
72.16% |
71.57% |
0.59% |
0.99% |
申萬精選 |
63.04% |
62.59% |
0.46% |
0.91% |
廣發穩健 |
72.34% |
71.93% |
0.42% |
0.81% |
金鷹精選 |
70.22% |
69.86% |
0.36% |
0.77% |
嘉實增長 |
70.73% |
70.51% |
0.22% |
0.62% |
國泰精選 |
72.37% |
72.23% |
0.14% |
0.53% |
嘉實服務 |
70.22% |
70.13% |
0.09% |
0.50% |
國聯成長 |
74.34% |
74.31% |
0.02% |
0.39% |
光大保德 |
80.00% |
80.00% |
0.00% |
0.31% |
易方達平穩 |
70.63% |
70.78% |
-0.15% |
0.25% |
銀河理財 |
73.33% |
73.62% |
-0.29% |
0.09% |
博時裕富 |
93.22% |
93.45% |
-0.22% |
-0.10% |
長信銀利 |
16.47% |
17.06% |
-0.59% |
-0.32% |
銀華 88 |
62.36% |
63.25% |
-0.90% |
-0.45% |
華夏回報 |
70.53% |
71.48% |
-0.95% |
-0.55% |
南方穩健 |
72.22% |
73.23% |
-1.01% |
-0.62% |
景順內需 |
76.44% |
77.58% |
-1.14% |
-0.80% |
融通成長 |
71.39% |
72.59% |
-1.20% |
-0.81% |
海富收益 |
52.32% |
53.64% |
-1.32% |
-0.84% |
東方龍 |
18.36% |
19.57% |
-1.22% |
-0.92% |
合豐周期 |
72.67% |
74.06% |
-1.39% |
-1.02% |
易方達 50 |
93.09% |
94.24% |
-1.15% |
-1.04% |
景順股票 |
69.78% |
71.28% |
-1.51% |
-1.11% |
寶康配置 |
58.71% |
60.29% |
-1.58% |
-1.12% |
博時價值 |
78.55% |
80.00% |
-1.45% |
-1.13% |
德盛穩健 |
63.50% |
65.16% |
-1.65% |
-1.21% |
易方達策略 |
76.53% |
78.13% |
-1.59% |
-1.26% |
華夏成長 |
71.11% |
72.79% |
-1.68% |
-1.30% |
中國 50 |
67.02% |
68.74% |
-1.72% |
-1.30% |
融通新藍籌 |
71.13% |
72.84% |
-1.71% |
-1.33% |
大成價值 |
68.57% |
70.32% |
-1.75% |
-1.35% |
寶盈鴻利 |
70.34% |
72.12% |
-1.78% |
-1.39% |
國泰金鷹 |
69.11% |
70.94% |
-1.83% |
-1.43% |
金鷹優選 |
76.54% |
78.34% |
-1.79% |
-1.46% |
盛利混合 |
9.88% |
11.75% |
-1.88% |
-1.68% |
銀河穩健 |
71.70% |
73.80% |
-2.10% |
-1.72% |
融通 100 |
71.23% |
73.37% |
-2.13% |
-1.75% |
大成穩健 |
70.63% |
72.80% |
-2.17% |
-1.78% |
德盛精選 |
53.69% |
56.03% |
-2.34% |
-1.86% |
中銀中國 |
12.10% |
14.24% |
-2.14% |
-1.90% |
中國優勢 |
69.55% |
71.90% |
-2.35% |
-1.96% |
廣發聚富 |
72.47% |
74.87% |
-2.41% |
-2.04% |
富國動態 |
68.77% |
71.21% |
-2.45% |
-2.05% |
長盛成長 |
71.43% |
73.93% |
-2.50% |
-2.12% |
華安 180 |
75.62% |
78.16% |
-2.54% |
-2.21% |
大成精選 |
59.77% |
62.55% |
-2.78% |
-2.33% |
合豐穩定 |
73.99% |
76.67% |
-2.68% |
-2.33% |
普天收益 |
67.56% |
70.38% |
-2.82% |
-2.41% |
荷銀精選 |
73.49% |
76.44% |
-2.94% |
-2.59% |
招商平衡 |
54.35% |
57.61% |
-3.26% |
-2.79% |
招商股票 |
68.65% |
71.85% |
-3.19% |
-2.80% |
鵬華行業 |
68.33% |
71.76% |
-3.43% |
-3.04% |
天同 180 |
76.53% |
80.00% |
-3.47% |
-3.16% |
巨田基礎 |
68.67% |
72.58% |
-3.91% |
-3.53% |
國泰穩健 |
59.80% |
63.84% |
-4.04% |
-3.59% |
長城久泰 |
84.66% |
88.87% |
-4.21% |
-4.02% |
合豐成長 |
72.69% |
77.49% |
-4.79% |
-4.45% |
加權平均 |
66.95% |
67.54% |
-0.59% |
-0.17% |
倉位穩定 |
| 資料來源：中信證券研究咨詢部 制表：新浪財經 辛淼 |
05年3月25日中信證券封閉式基金倉位測算結果
|
基金名稱
|
本周持倉
比例估計
|
上周持倉
比例估計
|
本周持倉
比例變動
|
本周持倉
凈變動
|
增持狀態
|
基金景博 |
69.79% |
67.90% |
1.89% |
2.31% |
倉位穩定 |
基金裕陽 |
70.69% |
68.80% |
1.89% |
2.31% |
基金天元 |
72.01% |
70.13% |
1.88% |
2.29% |
基金科訊 |
73.12% |
71.24% |
1.88% |
2.28% |
基金金元 |
72.02% |
70.17% |
1.85% |
2.25% |
基金同益 |
66.47% |
64.66% |
1.81% |
2.25% |
基金興業 |
72.02% |
70.22% |
1.80% |
2.20% |
基金鴻飛 |
66.48% |
64.77% |
1.71% |
2.15% |
基金裕澤 |
67.64% |
66.45% |
1.20% |
1.63% |
基金安瑞 |
67.65% |
66.46% |
1.19% |
1.62% |
基金景業 |
69.87% |
68.72% |
1.15% |
1.57% |
基金同盛 |
66.55% |
65.45% |
1.09% |
1.53% |
基金天華 |
66.55% |
65.46% |
1.09% |
1.53% |
基金金鑫 |
69.88% |
68.77% |
1.11% |
1.53% |
基金景陽 |
73.21% |
72.11% |
1.10% |
1.49% |
基金融鑫 |
66.55% |
65.54% |
1.01% |
1.45% |
基金泰和 |
67.67% |
66.68% |
0.99% |
1.42% |
基金隆元 |
72.12% |
71.20% |
0.92% |
1.32% |
基金裕元 |
71.01% |
70.12% |
0.89% |
1.30% |
基金裕隆 |
73.23% |
72.33% |
0.91% |
1.29% |
基金科瑞 |
71.01% |
70.13% |
0.89% |
1.29% |
基金景福 |
65.75% |
65.47% |
0.29% |
0.72% |
基金銀豐 |
73.32% |
73.21% |
0.11% |
0.49% |
基金豐和 |
70.01% |
70.07% |
-0.06% |
0.34% |
基金漢鼎 |
73.34% |
73.42% |
-0.08% |
0.30% |
基金興和 |
69.70% |
70.22% |
-0.51% |
-0.11% |
基金普豐 |
67.87% |
68.71% |
-0.84% |
-0.42% |
基金普惠 |
67.88% |
68.77% |
-0.89% |
-0.47% |
基金興安 |
72.32% |
73.21% |
-0.89% |
-0.51% |
基金通寶 |
70.10% |
71.02% |
-0.92% |
-0.52% |
基金裕華 |
72.32% |
73.22% |
-0.90% |
-0.52% |
基金金盛 |
70.11% |
71.07% |
-0.96% |
-0.56% |
基金安順 |
67.89% |
68.88% |
-0.99% |
-0.57% |
基金開元 |
72.33% |
73.32% |
-0.99% |
-0.61% |
基金景宏 |
67.90% |
69.00% |
-1.10% |
-0.69% |
基金鴻陽 |
71.24% |
72.35% |
-1.12% |
-0.73% |
基金金泰 |
66.80% |
67.99% |
-1.19% |
-0.77% |
基金安信 |
64.58% |
65.79% |
-1.21% |
-0.77% |
基金普潤 |
70.13% |
71.32% |
-1.19% |
-0.80% |
基金漢興 |
68.70% |
70.11% |
-1.41% |
-1.00% |
基金久嘉 |
68.70% |
70.11% |
-1.41% |
-1.00% |
基金漢盛 |
68.70% |
70.17% |
-1.47% |
-1.06% |
基金興科 |
72.42% |
74.20% |
-1.78% |
-1.41% |
基金同智 |
70.21% |
72.10% |
-1.89% |
-1.50% |
基金金鼎 |
72.43% |
74.32% |
-1.89% |
-1.52% |
基金通乾 |
65.78% |
67.77% |
-1.99% |
-1.57% |
基金安久 |
68.00% |
69.99% |
-1.99% |
-1.58% |
基金同德 |
70.22% |
72.23% |
-2.01% |
-1.62% |
基金漢博 |
66.90% |
68.99% |
-2.09% |
-1.68% |
基金普華 |
70.24% |
72.42% |
-2.18% |
-1.79% |
基金科匯 |
72.47% |
74.68% |
-2.21% |
-1.84% |
基金興華 |
65.55% |
67.90% |
-2.35% |
-1.93% |
基金科翔 |
71.46% |
74.55% |
-3.10% |
-2.73% |
基金久富 |
70.35% |
73.45% |
-3.11% |
-2.73% |
加權平均 |
69.25% |
69.39% |
-0.14% |
0.27% |
倉位穩定 |
| 資料來源：中信證券研究咨詢部 制表：新浪財經
辛淼 |
| 
