|
中信證券研究咨詢部 江賽春
上周市場出現調整格局，股指在沖破1300點后面臨較大的調整壓力，持續兩周的做多氣氛有所消退。基金重倉股的表現出現分化，周期類個股調整明顯。但從上周基金的操作來看，基金的持倉水平仍然有持續上升的跡象。
基金倉位測算顯示，上周五73只開放式基金加權平均倉位達到了66.96%，，比前周的64.73%繼續顯著上升了2.23%；封閉式基金方面，上周五加權平均倉位為69.85%，比前周的68.88%上升了0.96%，再度接近了70%的高倉位水平。從具體基金的倉位變動來看，上周基金基本上延續了前一周的操作方向，多數基金都顯示為小幅增倉。但由于上周市場總體下跌，因此扣除價格因素以后顯示為增倉跡象的基金大幅增加。倉位凈變動5%以上的由前一周的3只基金上升為11只基金，其中，中國優勢、中融行業2只基金持續增持。增倉的基金主要還是倉位相對較輕的基金，顯示為增倉的基金其倉位都在65%以下。此外上周增加了東方龍、盛利混合、大成精選等7只開放式基金的倉位測算。測算結果表明7只新基金的平均倉位為26.57%，其中大成精選、博時主題行業、天治品質等3只基金建倉相對較快，而其余幾只基金建倉謹慎。
從倉位變化上來看，近兩周基金的增倉態勢已經較為明顯，這一跡象值得關注。首先這表明基金對市場的總體判斷為謹慎偏樂觀。從年前股指下探1200反彈以來，多數基金對市場的判斷是處于由熊轉牛的震蕩市階段，這種情況下輕倉的基金會適當增加股票倉位。其二是基金可能在什么板塊上有所增持。雖然連續兩周倉位有較明顯的上升，但并不表明基金的操作方向是單邊的，基金很可能在一些重倉板塊上繼續進行著結構性的調整，而周期類股票可能成為基金調整持倉的重點。周期類股票是此輪反彈中帶動基金重倉板塊走強的重要力量，基金可能在近期表現較強的如鋼鐵、石化板塊中有較大規模的增持。但受制于礦產能源價格變動等不確定因素，周期類股票的價值重估也受到明顯的抑制。這使得基金必須相應地作出動態調整。從上周的市場情況來看，基金重倉股總體處于滯漲狀態。但從漲跌幅股票的分布來看，防御性的高速公路、港口等股票仍保持強勢，電力板塊走強，而前期表現較好的周期性股票如鋼鐵、有色金屬、汽車等則出現了比較明顯的調整。由此似乎可以看到基金持續調整持倉的思路。
表一：開放式基金倉位測算結果
|
基金名稱
|
本周持倉
比例估計
|
上周持倉
比例估計
|
本周持倉
比例變動
|
本周持倉
凈變動
|
增持狀態
|
國泰金鷹 |
64.71% |
57.98% |
6.72% |
7.21% |
增倉跡象 |
中融行業 |
66.71% |
60.22% |
6.49% |
6.97% |
中國優勢 |
67.42% |
61.38% |
6.04% |
6.52% |
富國價值 |
67.49% |
61.84% |
5.66% |
6.13% |
景順股票 |
67.96% |
62.60% |
5.36% |
5.83% |
南方積配 |
51.16% |
45.92% |
5.24% |
5.74% |
易方達平穩 |
67.25% |
62.04% |
5.21% |
5.69% |
國泰精選 |
68.75% |
63.63% |
5.12% |
5.58% |
易基成長 |
65.48% |
60.59% |
4.89% |
5.37% |
銀華 88 |
59.31% |
54.60% |
4.71% |
5.21% |
招商平衡 |
50.17% |
45.60% |
4.57% |
5.07% |
廣發穩健 |
64.81% |
60.33% |
4.49% |
4.97% |
倉位穩定 |
廣發聚富 |
70.26% |
65.77% |
4.49% |
4.95% |
金鷹精選 |
75.76% |
71.30% |
4.46% |
4.87% |
海富收益 |
47.90% |
43.60% |
4.30% |
4.80% |
寶康配置 |
51.19% |
47.07% |
4.12% |
4.62% |
長盛成長 |
70.30% |
66.19% |
4.11% |
4.57% |
中國 50 |
64.58% |
60.69% |
3.89% |
4.37% |
華夏大盤 |
68.70% |
64.80% |
3.90% |
4.36% |
銀華優勢 |
64.51% |
60.70% |
3.81% |
4.29% |
招商股票 |
63.81% |
60.01% |
3.80% |
4.29% |
南方穩健 |
70.57% |
66.74% |
3.83% |
4.28% |
招商先鋒 |
67.79% |
64.02% |
3.77% |
4.24% |
大成穩健 |
71.49% |
67.71% |
3.78% |
4.23% |
景順內需 |
74.13% |
70.49% |
3.64% |
4.06% |
景順平衡 |
52.31% |
48.77% |
3.55% |
4.05% |
寶利配置 |
41.37% |
37.87% |
3.51% |
3.98% |
銀河穩健 |
71.37% |
67.97% |
3.40% |
3.84% |
銀河理財 |
66.96% |
63.69% |
3.27% |
3.74% |
長城久恒 |
66.94% |
63.69% |
3.25% |
3.71% |
長盛動態 |
51.88% |
48.71% |
3.16% |
3.67% |
嘉實增長 |
63.75% |
60.59% |
3.16% |
3.64% |
博時精選 |
66.71% |
63.57% |
3.14% |
3.60% |
荷銀精選 |
75.96% |
72.90% |
3.06% |
3.46% |
華夏回報 |
67.68% |
64.71% |
2.97% |
3.43% |
融通成長 |
70.59% |
67.73% |
2.87% |
3.31% |
申萬精選 |
64.68% |
62.16% |
2.52% |
2.99% |
鵬華行業 |
65.98% |
63.46% |
2.52% |
2.99% |
國泰穩健 |
64.87% |
62.52% |
2.35% |
2.82% |
易方達策略 |
76.43% |
74.12% |
2.31% |
2.69% |
合豐穩定 |
73.52% |
71.29% |
2.23% |
2.65% |
嘉實穩健 |
56.88% |
54.85% |
2.03% |
2.53% |
寶盈鴻利 |
70.38% |
68.32% |
2.06% |
2.49% |
融通行業 |
72.25% |
70.28% |
1.97% |
2.39% |
融通新藍籌 |
76.72% |
74.74% |
1.98% |
2.36% |
國聯成長 |
72.12% |
70.36% |
1.76% |
2.18% |
華寶策略 |
70.46% |
68.72% |
1.75% |
2.18% |
嘉實服務 |
66.37% |
64.65% |
1.72% |
2.18% |
寶康消費 |
67.29% |
65.65% |
1.65% |
2.10% |
富國動態 |
64.88% |
63.52% |
1.36% |
1.82% |
海富通精選 |
67.88% |
66.88% |
1.00% |
1.45% |
光大保德 |
77.88% |
76.85% |
1.03% |
1.39% |
華夏成長 |
73.39% |
72.43% |
0.96% |
1.36% |
博時裕富 |
95.45% |
94.24% |
1.21% |
1.32% |
長城久泰 |
88.66% |
87.66% |
1.00% |
1.22% |
華安 180 |
78.24% |
77.40% |
0.84% |
1.19% |
易方達 50 |
94.09% |
93.13% |
0.95% |
1.08% |
合豐周期 |
80.00% |
79.59% |
0.41% |
0.74% |
德盛穩健 |
63.51% |
63.70% |
-0.19% |
0.28% |
天同 180 |
79.20% |
79.42% |
-0.22% |
0.11% |
巨田基礎 |
73.18% |
73.52% |
-0.34% |
0.05% |
合豐成長 |
74.03% |
74.37% |
-0.34% |
0.04% |
金鷹優選 |
76.22% |
76.54% |
-0.32% |
0.04% |
泰信策略 |
59.65% |
60.22% |
-0.56% |
-0.08% |
融通 100 |
77.66% |
78.57% |
-0.91% |
-0.57% |
博時價值 |
78.98% |
79.89% |
-0.91% |
-0.59% |
天治增長 |
34.08% |
35.26% |
-1.18% |
-0.72% |
諾安平衡 |
58.53% |
60.14% |
-1.61% |
-1.13% |
大成價值 |
67.61% |
69.54% |
-1.93% |
-1.51% |
德盛精選 |
52.61% |
54.76% |
-2.16% |
-1.66% |
華安創新 |
64.10% |
66.44% |
-2.34% |
-1.89% |
嘉實成長 |
66.41% |
68.83% |
-2.42% |
-1.99% |
普天收益 |
63.08% |
65.82% |
-2.74% |
-2.28% |
東方龍 |
13.70% |
－ |
－ |
－ |
－ |
盛利混合 |
8.66% |
－ |
－ |
－ |
大成精選 |
57.95% |
－ |
－ |
－ |
中銀中國 |
5.29% |
－ |
－ |
－ |
博時主題 |
42.89% |
－ |
－ |
－ |
天治品質 |
43.33% |
－ |
－ |
－ |
長信銀利 |
14.20% |
－ |
－ |
－ |
加權平均 |
66.96% |
64.73% |
2.23% |
2.69% |
倉位穩定 |
上表數據均依據公開信息測算，參考誤差比例在5%以內，僅供參考。
資料來源：中信證券研究咨詢部 截至：2005-03-04 制表：新浪財經 辛淼 |
表二：封閉式基金倉位測算結果
|
基金名稱
|
本周持倉
比例估計
|
上周持倉
比例估計
|
本周持倉
比例變動
|
本周持倉
凈變動
|
增持狀態
|
基金景陽 |
70.68% |
67.54% |
3.14% |
3.58% |
倉位穩定 |
基金裕隆 |
72.70% |
69.67% |
3.03% |
3.46% |
基金漢盛 |
69.68% |
66.79% |
2.89% |
3.34% |
基金科瑞 |
72.68% |
69.78% |
2.90% |
3.33% |
基金天元 |
73.07% |
70.70% |
2.37% |
2.79% |
基金科匯 |
77.51% |
75.11% |
2.40% |
2.78% |
基金鴻陽 |
75.30% |
73.01% |
2.29% |
2.69% |
基金科翔 |
75.30% |
73.01% |
2.29% |
2.69% |
基金融鑫 |
64.20% |
62.03% |
2.18% |
2.65% |
基金安順 |
67.54% |
65.43% |
2.11% |
2.57% |
基金同盛 |
65.32% |
63.23% |
2.10% |
2.57% |
基金銀豐 |
70.69% |
68.57% |
2.12% |
2.55% |
基金興科 |
71.67% |
69.57% |
2.11% |
2.53% |
基金景業 |
69.78% |
67.79% |
1.99% |
2.43% |
基金金元 |
68.68% |
66.80% |
1.88% |
2.33% |
基金通寶 |
71.70% |
69.80% |
1.90% |
2.33% |
基金興和 |
71.70% |
69.90% |
1.80% |
2.23% |
基金漢鼎 |
72.07% |
70.67% |
1.40% |
1.82% |
基金普華 |
72.07% |
70.68% |
1.39% |
1.81% |
基金開元 |
72.07% |
70.69% |
1.38% |
1.80% |
基金裕元 |
72.07% |
70.69% |
1.38% |
1.80% |
基金安信 |
68.75% |
67.54% |
1.21% |
1.65% |
基金金泰 |
68.76% |
67.56% |
1.19% |
1.64% |
基金裕陽 |
69.87% |
68.69% |
1.18% |
1.62% |
基金久富 |
75.42% |
74.20% |
1.22% |
1.61% |
基金同德 |
73.20% |
72.01% |
1.19% |
1.60% |
基金景博 |
69.88% |
68.77% |
1.11% |
1.55% |
基金興華 |
69.88% |
68.79% |
1.09% |
1.53% |
基金金盛 |
69.88% |
68.79% |
1.09% |
1.53% |
基金豐和 |
69.88% |
68.80% |
1.08% |
1.52% |
基金興安 |
70.70% |
69.67% |
1.02% |
1.45% |
基金普豐 |
69.89% |
68.88% |
1.01% |
1.44% |
基金漢興 |
70.67% |
69.76% |
0.91% |
1.33% |
基金久嘉 |
70.70% |
69.87% |
0.82% |
1.25% |
基金科訊 |
74.37% |
73.70% |
0.67% |
1.06% |
基金金鼎 |
72.17% |
71.70% |
0.47% |
0.88% |
基金安瑞 |
65.52% |
65.20% |
0.32% |
0.78% |
基金裕華 |
72.20% |
72.01% |
0.19% |
0.60% |
基金景宏 |
69.99% |
69.88% |
0.11% |
0.53% |
基金漢博 |
68.89% |
68.88% |
0.01% |
0.45% |
基金安久 |
68.97% |
69.67% |
-0.71% |
-0.28% |
基金同益 |
65.64% |
66.43% |
-0.79% |
-0.34% |
基金普惠 |
66.76% |
67.55% |
-0.80% |
-0.36% |
基金裕澤 |
64.53% |
65.35% |
-0.81% |
-0.36% |
基金鴻飛 |
66.77% |
67.68% |
-0.91% |
-0.47% |
基金通乾 |
66.77% |
67.68% |
-0.91% |
-0.47% |
基金泰和 |
67.88% |
68.80% |
-0.92% |
-0.49% |
基金金鑫 |
66.79% |
67.89% |
-1.10% |
-0.66% |
基金同智 |
70.17% |
71.68% |
-1.51% |
-1.10% |
基金隆元 |
70.17% |
71.68% |
-1.51% |
-1.10% |
基金天華 |
65.75% |
67.46% |
-1.71% |
-1.27% |
基金興業 |
72.41% |
74.10% |
-1.69% |
-1.30% |
基金景福 |
67.98% |
69.78% |
-1.80% |
-1.37% |
基金普潤 |
72.42% |
74.21% |
-1.79% |
-1.40% |
加權平均 |
69.85% |
68.88% |
0.96% |
1.40% |
倉位穩定 |
封閉式基金由于數據較少可能出現較大的個別誤差；
加權平均倉位參考誤差比例在5%以內。
資料來源：中信證券研究咨詢部 截至：2005-03-04 制表：新浪財經 辛淼 |
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