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中信證券研究咨詢部 江賽春
上周市場走勢可謂欲振乏力。在印花稅減半等利好消息的刺激下，周一股指延續前周的漲勢大幅跳空高開，但隨后即展開逐波回調。政策效應的短期刺激難以持續。雖然市場呈現局部亮點，但仍然難掩總體頹勢。從上周基金的操作來看，基金倉位變動略現出分化態勢，觀望態度仍然濃厚。
基金倉位測算顯示，按照4季度公布的最新開放式基金份額計算，上周五73只開放式基金加權平均倉位為63.65%；可比的64只開放式基金加權平均倉位為64.58%，比前周的64.27%略增了0.31個百分點；封閉式基金方面，上周五加權平均倉位為67.47%，同樣比前周的66.47%上升了1.00%。從具體基金的倉位變動來看，融通成長、天同180、寶盈鴻利等三只基金顯示為增倉跡象，顯示為減持跡象的僅有銀華優勢企業一只基金，此外多數基金顯示為倉位穩定。此外，上周新增了廣發穩健、華夏大盤等9只開放式基金的倉位測算，結果顯示這部分新發基金的倉位大多在50～60%之間，建倉過程已進行過半。雖然倉位仍然較輕，但這部分基金規模普遍偏小，因此可用資金也較為有限。
從上周的市場情況來看，部分基金重倉股在前周五至上周一的市場大漲中表現強勁，而部分績優龍頭股陸續公布業績修正公告也，一度引起市場對基金行情的期望。但在隨后的回調中重倉股行情也沒能體現出持續性，由基金推動又一輪行情的可能性較小。總體而言上周股指的小幅反彈利好刺激的作用更為明顯，但這種利好效應很快于兩天內消退。這也印證了市場的擔心，即無實質性政策預期的情況下，市場可能再度陷于疲弱。而從基金的狀況來看，開放式基金的倉位已經達到65%左右的較高水平，而封閉式基金更是持續保持在70%左右的高倉位，基金在此基礎上進一步增持的空間并不很大。從歷史上來看，基金集中建倉往往是大盤走強的前奏，但這一經驗在目前的市場中已經很難得到延續。尤其是老基金的倉位較為沉重，在這種情況下，調整仍然將是基金的主旋律。
表一：開放式基金倉位測算結果
|
基金名稱
|
本周持倉
比例估計
|
上周持倉
比例估計
|
本周持倉
比例變動
|
本周持倉
凈變動
|
增持狀態
|
融通成長 |
70.52% |
66.22% |
4.30% |
5.21% |
增持跡象 |
天同 180 |
76.88% |
72.55% |
4.33% |
5.14% |
寶盈鴻利 |
71.12% |
66.98% |
4.14% |
5.05% |
嘉實成長 |
70.55% |
66.57% |
3.98% |
4.88% |
倉位穩定 |
合豐穩定 |
70.11% |
66.15% |
3.96% |
4.87% |
華寶策略 |
66.85% |
63.06% |
3.79% |
4.74% |
招商先鋒 |
67.58% |
64.05% |
3.53% |
4.47% |
普天收益 |
62.02% |
58.65% |
3.37% |
4.36% |
泰信策略 |
58.24% |
54.97% |
3.27% |
4.27% |
南方穩健 |
67.49% |
64.16% |
3.33% |
4.27% |
博時價值 |
77.98% |
74.58% |
3.40% |
4.18% |
鵬華行業 |
62.59% |
59.54% |
3.04% |
4.02% |
招商平衡 |
49.74% |
46.84% |
2.90% |
3.90% |
融通行業 |
64.95% |
62.16% |
2.79% |
3.75% |
中融行業 |
47.98% |
45.24% |
2.74% |
3.74% |
荷銀精選 |
66.39% |
64.08% |
2.31% |
3.25% |
融通 100 |
76.55% |
74.13% |
2.43% |
3.21% |
銀河穩健 |
71.93% |
69.67% |
2.26% |
3.12% |
景順內需 |
66.86% |
64.67% |
2.19% |
3.12% |
申萬精選 |
59.80% |
57.68% |
2.12% |
3.12% |
富國動態 |
60.58% |
58.50% |
2.08% |
3.07% |
華夏成長 |
76.90% |
74.77% |
2.13% |
2.90% |
海富通精選 |
67.28% |
65.42% |
1.86% |
2.78% |
博時裕富 |
92.13% |
89.78% |
2.36% |
2.73% |
易方達策略 |
75.08% |
73.19% |
1.88% |
2.68% |
國泰精選 |
64.10% |
62.57% |
1.53% |
2.49% |
華安 180 |
75.25% |
73.59% |
1.66% |
2.46% |
景順股票 |
63.59% |
62.31% |
1.28% |
2.23% |
嘉實服務 |
63.81% |
62.60% |
1.21% |
2.16% |
金鷹精選 |
68.36% |
67.21% |
1.15% |
2.05% |
國泰穩健 |
60.72% |
59.72% |
1.00% |
1.97% |
中國 50 |
58.57% |
57.63% |
0.94% |
1.93% |
天治增長 |
41.68% |
40.73% |
0.95% |
1.92% |
金鷹優選 |
75.59% |
74.50% |
1.09% |
1.87% |
招商股票 |
66.03% |
65.12% |
0.91% |
1.83% |
易方達 50 |
94.74% |
93.25% |
1.49% |
1.75% |
華安創新 |
68.57% |
67.79% |
0.78% |
1.67% |
巨田基礎 |
75.43% |
74.60% |
0.84% |
1.61% |
寶康配置 |
51.05% |
50.73% |
0.32% |
1.33% |
合豐周期 |
72.81% |
72.47% |
0.34% |
1.15% |
長城久泰 |
84.67% |
84.23% |
0.44% |
0.98% |
寶康消費 |
61.87% |
62.05% |
-0.18% |
0.78% |
合豐成長 |
68.27% |
68.60% |
-0.33% |
0.55% |
華夏回報 |
57.00% |
57.54% |
-0.54% |
0.45% |
景順平衡 |
47.50% |
48.10% |
-0.60% |
0.41% |
嘉實增長 |
65.28% |
65.97% |
-0.69% |
0.22% |
國泰金鷹 |
59.65% |
60.48% |
-0.83% |
0.14% |
易方達平穩 |
60.31% |
61.17% |
-0.86% |
0.11% |
諾安平衡 |
64.16% |
65.20% |
-1.04% |
-0.12% |
德盛精選 |
56.11% |
57.41% |
-1.30% |
-0.31% |
大成價值 |
67.03% |
68.71% |
-1.68% |
-0.80% |
海富收益 |
44.14% |
46.01% |
-1.87% |
-0.87% |
嘉實穩健 |
53.28% |
55.34% |
-2.06% |
-1.06% |
博時精選 |
65.22% |
67.44% |
-2.22% |
-1.32% |
銀河理財 |
58.68% |
61.23% |
-2.56% |
-1.59% |
大成穩健 |
68.18% |
70.95% |
-2.77% |
-1.93% |
廣發聚富 |
65.74% |
68.66% |
-2.92% |
-2.04% |
長城久恒 |
61.59% |
64.65% |
-3.07% |
-2.14% |
德盛穩健 |
57.84% |
61.07% |
-3.23% |
-2.26% |
長盛成長 |
67.69% |
71.31% |
-3.63% |
-2.79% |
富國價值 |
59.28% |
63.10% |
-3.83% |
-2.88% |
融通新藍籌 |
66.39% |
70.31% |
-3.92% |
-3.07% |
長盛動態 |
53.50% |
59.12% |
-5.62% |
-4.64% |
銀華優勢 |
63.48% |
69.39% |
-5.91% |
-5.04% |
減持跡象 |
廣發穩健 |
55.48% |
－ |
－ |
－ |
－ |
華夏大盤 |
58.88% |
－ |
－ |
－ |
銀華 88 |
35.04% |
－ |
－ |
－ |
寶利配置 |
39.38% |
－ |
－ |
－ |
光大保德 |
76.78% |
－ |
－ |
－ |
易基成長 |
56.17% |
－ |
－ |
－ |
中國優勢 |
49.20% |
－ |
－ |
－ |
國聯成長 |
62.98% |
－ |
－ |
－ |
南方積配 |
40.47% |
－ |
－ |
－ |
加權平均 |
63.65% |
64.27% |
-0.62% |
0.32% |
倉位穩定 |
* 上表數據均依據公開信息測算，參考誤差比例在5%以內，僅供參考。
數據來源：中信證券 江賽春 截至：2005-01-28 制表：新浪財經 辛淼 |
表二：封閉式基金倉位測算結果
|
基金名稱
|
本周持倉
比例估計
|
上周持倉
比例估計
|
本周持倉
比例變動
|
本周持倉
凈變動
|
增持狀態
|
基金同德 |
70.67% |
67.02% |
3.65% |
4.55% |
倉位穩定 |
基金興業 |
70.17% |
66.56% |
3.61% |
4.52% |
基金興安 |
67.42% |
64.21% |
3.21% |
4.15% |
基金興和 |
69.65% |
66.54% |
3.11% |
4.02% |
基金景陽 |
64.02% |
61.00% |
3.02% |
3.99% |
基金科訊 |
68.47% |
65.45% |
3.02% |
3.94% |
基金裕元 |
69.55% |
66.55% |
2.99% |
3.90% |
基金普潤 |
70.68% |
67.68% |
3.00% |
3.89% |
基金安久 |
67.46% |
64.56% |
2.89% |
3.82% |
基金科匯 |
70.68% |
67.87% |
2.81% |
3.70% |
基金漢鼎 |
67.48% |
64.78% |
2.70% |
3.63% |
基金同智 |
66.42% |
64.25% |
2.18% |
3.11% |
基金興華 |
68.65% |
66.45% |
2.19% |
3.10% |
基金開元 |
70.65% |
68.45% |
2.19% |
3.07% |
基金鴻陽 |
70.65% |
68.47% |
2.18% |
3.06% |
基金久富 |
71.65% |
69.47% |
2.18% |
3.05% |
基金漢興 |
66.43% |
64.34% |
2.09% |
3.03% |
基金景業 |
68.65% |
66.55% |
2.11% |
3.02% |
基金金泰 |
66.44% |
64.35% |
2.08% |
3.02% |
基金鴻飛 |
67.55% |
65.46% |
2.09% |
3.01% |
基金景福 |
67.55% |
65.46% |
2.08% |
3.00% |
基金金盛 |
68.66% |
66.58% |
2.08% |
2.99% |
基金科翔 |
70.66% |
68.57% |
2.09% |
2.97% |
基金金元 |
69.78% |
67.76% |
2.02% |
2.91% |
基金普華 |
68.68% |
66.77% |
1.91% |
2.82% |
基金科瑞 |
67.57% |
65.68% |
1.89% |
2.81% |
基金豐和 |
69.79% |
67.89% |
1.90% |
2.79% |
基金漢博 |
67.58% |
65.76% |
1.81% |
2.73% |
基金金鑫 |
68.57% |
66.76% |
1.81% |
2.71% |
基金普惠 |
65.37% |
63.66% |
1.71% |
2.65% |
基金泰和 |
69.94% |
68.35% |
1.58% |
2.46% |
基金漢盛 |
68.95% |
67.46% |
1.49% |
2.38% |
基金天元 |
69.95% |
68.54% |
1.41% |
2.29% |
基金裕陽 |
68.76% |
67.65% |
1.12% |
2.01% |
基金興科 |
66.55% |
65.47% |
1.08% |
2.00% |
基金銀豐 |
66.76% |
65.69% |
1.07% |
1.99% |
基金金鼎 |
68.57% |
67.57% |
1.00% |
1.89% |
基金裕華 |
71.00% |
70.01% |
0.99% |
1.85% |
基金普豐 |
67.68% |
66.77% |
0.91% |
1.82% |
基金景博 |
66.57% |
65.68% |
0.89% |
1.81% |
基金同益 |
63.24% |
62.42% |
0.82% |
1.77% |
基金安信 |
64.36% |
63.56% |
0.80% |
1.74% |
基金通乾 |
67.69% |
66.87% |
0.82% |
1.72% |
基金隆元 |
66.86% |
66.36% |
0.51% |
1.42% |
基金天華 |
65.65% |
66.55% |
-0.89% |
0.01% |
基金久嘉 |
67.46% |
68.46% |
-1.00% |
-0.12% |
基金裕隆 |
66.78% |
67.80% |
-1.02% |
-0.13% |
基金融鑫 |
62.68% |
64.47% |
-1.79% |
-0.86% |
基金景宏 |
67.97% |
69.71% |
-1.74% |
-0.88% |
基金通寶 |
69.56% |
71.66% |
-2.10% |
-1.27% |
基金安順 |
63.26% |
65.68% |
-2.42% |
-1.50% |
基金安瑞 |
60.27% |
63.17% |
-2.90% |
-1.95% |
基金裕澤 |
64.79% |
67.89% |
-3.10% |
-2.21% |
基金同盛 |
62.66% |
66.56% |
-3.91% |
-3.00% |
加權平均 |
67.47% |
66.47% |
1.00% |
1.59% |
倉位穩定 |
* 封閉式基金由于數據較少可能出現較大的個別誤差；加權平均倉位參考誤差比例在5%以內。
數據來源：中信證券 江賽春 截至：2005-01-28 制表：新浪財經 辛淼 |
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