澳大利亞經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為澳央行于年底之前再次加息

　　澳央行本周（5月12日當(dāng)周）宣布削減稅收，受此影響，現(xiàn)更多的澳大利亞經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)期年底之前澳央行將再次加息，其中有經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)期將加息0.25%至6%。

　　綜合外電5月12日?qǐng)?bào)道，繼澳大利亞本周（5月12日當(dāng)周）宣布削減約370億澳元（280億美元）的稅收后，越來越多的澳大利亞經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)期澳大利亞央行（Reserve Bank of Australia)在年底之前將再次加息。

　　悉尼Ausbil Dexia Ltd.基金公司和摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）有關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家12日表示，預(yù)期澳大利亞央行9月份將把基準(zhǔn)隔夜現(xiàn)金利率提高0.25%至6%。高盛（Goldman Sachs）在澳的分支JBWere預(yù)期澳央行將于第四季度加息。為阻止通貨膨脹澳大利亞央于5月3日加息至5.75%。

　　將于7月1日生效的減稅政策可能會(huì)增加澳大利亞國(guó)內(nèi)的消費(fèi)者支出、推動(dòng)股價(jià)上揚(yáng)以及引發(fā)通貨膨脹。

　　摩根大通首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家沃爾特斯（Stephen Walters）稱，本周（5月12日當(dāng)周）預(yù)算報(bào)告的有關(guān)預(yù)期暗示央行可能再次加息，預(yù)算報(bào)告中包括將削減個(gè)人所得稅，雖然出于良好目的，但本周（5月12日當(dāng)周）的財(cái)政支出顯示有可能加速經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，以及增加通脹壓力，而這兩種結(jié)果正好是澳大利亞央行目前希望加以限制的。

　　More Australian Economists Say Key Rate Will Rise (Update1)

　　May 12 (Bloomberg) -- More economists say Australia's central

　　bank will raise interest rates a second time by the end of the year，after the government handed out nearly A$37 billion ($28 billion) oftax cuts this week.

　　Economists at Ausbil Dexia Ltd. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. today

　　said the central bank would raise the benchmark overnight cash ratetarget a quarter-point to 6 percent by September. Goldman Sachs JBWere expects an increase in the fourth quarter. The central bank

　　raised the rate to 5.75 percent last week to stem inflation.

　　The government's tax cuts， which take effect on July 1， may

　　spur consumer spending， stoking growth and inflation in the Asia-Pacific's fifth-largest economy. In a Bloomberg News survey before the budget was released on May 9， only three predicted a rate

　　increase by Dec. 31. With TD Securities Ltd. also changing its view this week， that has now risen to seven of 22.

　　``This week's budget giveaways -- which included substantial

　　reductions in personal income tax -- have tipped the scales in favorof another rate hike，'' Stephen Walters， chief economist at JPMorgan Chase in Sydney， said in a statement e-mailed to Bloomberg News.

　　``While well targeted， this week's fiscal largesse is likely tospeed up economic growth and add to inflation pressure at the very

　　time the Reserve Bank is trying to put a lid on both.''

　　Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Ian Macfarlane， 59， retires in September after 10 years as bank chief. His move last week took

　　borrowing costs to the highest in five years.

　　(侯向明 編譯)